Japanese : https://i-rich.org/?p=2737
YANO Yoshiaki
Senior Researcher
International Research Institute of Controversial Histories
It has already been two months since the war against Iran (hereinafter referred to as the Iran War) launched by Israel and the United States on February 28 of this year. Much of the coverage in Japan’s major media outlets follows the narrative originating from Washington D.C.—that the U.S. and Israeli militaries are winning the Iran War.
The Trump Administration’s War Strategy and Political Calculations
Within the Trump Administration, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth argued that the approach to war should involve thorough preparation, the concentration of large military forces, the achievement of war objectives in a short period, and the immediate return of U.S. service members to their families.
President Trump stated that the U.S. had previously disclosed too much information about its wars, thereby benefiting the enemy, and that from now on, war plans and operations will be secret.
Based on these policies, of short-term warfare and secrecy, to date, the Trump Administration successfully carried out approximately eight short-term wars, primarily in the Middle East and Africa, including the invasion of Venezuela in January of this year.
On the other hand, much like the Biden Administration, the Trump Administration has imposed strict media controls, particularly regarding wartime reporting. Under media control, claims that the U.S. is winning the Iran War align with the narrative favored by the White House.
However, on May 2 of this year, CNN reported the following:
“Iran and its allies have damaged at least 16 U.S. military facilities across eight Middle Eastern countries, rendering some of those positions virtually unstable, a CNN investigation has found. The report drew on dozens of satellite images and interviews with sources in the U.S. and Gulf Arab nations. The damaged facilities constitute the majority of US military positions in the region, according to one congressional aide familiar with the damage assessments.”
Meanwhile, in the U.S. Congress, Democratic accusations are mounting—the Trump Administration is covering up U.S. military casualties on the battlefield and has dragged the U.S. military into a protracted quagmire. In response, Secretary of Defense Hegseth has strongly dismissed these claims, stating, “You call it a quagmire, handing propaganda to our enemies? Shame on you for that statement.”
With the midterm elections coming up this November, it appears the Trump Administration’s political agenda is to cloak the Iran War by portraying it as a some sort of victory, and to use the war as a backdrop to win the elections. To that end, it is very likely that the Administration is suppressing major media outlets from reporting the truth about the current disaster befalling U.S. forces.
The Trump Administration Aligning with Israel, Where Strict Media Controls Are in Place
Strict censorship and media controls are also in force within Israel. Independent social media outlets in Israel and the U.S. report that information regarding damage within Israel caused by Iranian missile and drone attacks cannot be disseminated abroad without permission from Israeli authorities. Nonetheless, footage has circulated on social media showing buildings in Tel Aviv—a hub for the Israeli military, intelligence agencies, and high-tech companies—destroyed and engulfed in flames by Iranian missile strikes.
At the same time, images circulating on these very social media platforms warned that if ordinary Israeli civilians filmed such scenes and uploaded them to social media, they would be immediately arrested and imprisoned.
The Trump Administration strongly criticized the Biden Administration for its censorship and, after regaining power for a second term, declared that it would abolish censorship to protect freedom of speech. However, in the conduct of subsequent wars—particularly the war with Iran—the Trump Administration has imposed strict media restrictions reminiscent of those imposed during World War II.
Future Prospects and Concerns for Japan’s Future
Regarding the ongoing negotiations for a permanent ceasefire between the United States and Iran, if U.S. forces suffered significant losses, negotiations will likely proceed under Iranian leadership. The fact that the current negotiations are based on a 10-point proposal put forward by Iran—rather than terms dictated by the United States—is a sign that Iran is leading the negotiations.
If a permanent ceasefire is reached with Iran holding the upper hand, the negotiations will likely conclude with Iran’s demands being largely accepted. Iran’s uranium enrichment and possession of ballistic missiles will be effectively acknowledged and Iran will likely retain control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Thus, the Trump Administration may launch another attack on Iran to not lose face and to try and claim victory. It could be argued that the Trump Administration is currently tightening wartime media restrictions for this very purpose in fact, it is said that Iran still possesses approximately 45,000 missiles which have stockpiled in underground facilities over several decades. With support from China and Russia, it is reasonable to assume that Iran’s superiority in missile capabilities will remain intact even if the conflict drags on.
In any case, information currently released by Israel and the United States is based on intelligence assessments and is therefore not necessarily the truth. More to the point, it is certainly a distortion of the truth.
Japan, which has tagged behind the United States, risks finding itself on the losing side in the Iran War, just as it did in the Ukraine War. Within a postwar order in which Japan stood with the losing side, it must be prepared to face harsh treatment—such as reduced oil quotas—and bear the heavy burden of postwar reparations and reconstruction aid.
Furthermore, the Self-Defense Forces’ organizational and equipment structures—which have hitherto been entirely aligned with those of the U.S. military—as well as their doctrines regarding operations, training, and research and development, will have to undergo fundamental reform if they are to become independent and uniquely Japanese.
The current US-Iran War has made it clear just how much errors in strategic assessment—made while blithely ignoring the veil of secrecy—can damage national interests and determine the rise and fall of a nation.